Result
Final: Virginia 28, Syracuse 25
Closest: Our model (Virginia by 7.2, missed by 4.2). 3 of 3 models named the winner. Our call was right.
Our call: Virginia by 13.2Strong
All three models favor Virginia (SP+ from the week 5 snapshot).
The average of SP+, Elo and Our model; the line is left out and kept as a benchmark. Toss-up under 3 points, Lean 3 to 7, Strong 7 and over. More ›
SP+ has Virginia by 18.1, Elo has Virginia by 14.3, and Our model has Virginia by 7.2. They are within 10.9 points of each other.
This page was first built after kickoff, so these are the week's projections as recorded then, from the same weekly ratings the season record scores.
Every model
| Model | Says | Missed by |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ Syracuse -1.2 vs Virginia +14.4 · week 5 ratings | Virginia by 18.1 ✓ | 15.1 |
| Elo Syracuse 1300 vs Virginia 1595 | Virginia by 14.3 ✓ | 11.3 |
| Our model · experimental Closest Syracuse -0.7 vs Virginia +3.9 | Virginia by 7.2 ✓ | 4.2 |
| Line (benchmark) no pregame line | n/a | – |
| Our call average of SP+, Elo and Our model · Strong | Virginia by 13.2 ✓ | 10.2 |
Each margin is from the same weekly ratings the team pages use: SP+ and Elo from their rating gap, the home team given 2.5 points (none at a neutral site); Our model is this site's experimental rating; the line is the market's pregame margin, shown as a benchmark and never part of Our call. ✓ when a model named the winner, ✗ when it did not; Closest marks the one nearest the final margin (an exact tie goes to the first listed). How these work ›
Key injuries
No injury list was recorded for this game: its page was first built after kickoff.
Last 5 meetings
tied 3–3 · last: Syracuse 22–20, 2022
| Season | Result | Site |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Syracuse 22–20 | JMA Wireless Dome |
| 2015 | Virginia 44–38 | Scott Stadium |
| 2005 | Virginia 27–24 | JMA Wireless Dome |
| 2004 | Virginia 31–10 | Scott Stadium |
| 1977 | Syracuse 6–3 | — |