College Football Playoff Predictions 2026: Our Bracket and Odds

The model behind it

Our call has picked 108–45 (71%) of this season's graded FBS games through Week 10. See every model's record ›

Our call is the average of SP+, Elo and Our model, the same numbers the game pages use; each remaining game in the simulations is played with it, 2.5 points to the home team, so this page and the game pages always agree. It is one model among several, graded in public.

Our projected bracket

The twelve teams most likely to make the field, seeded by their average seed across the simulations. Seeds 1-4 get byes; seeds 5-8 host seeds 12-9 on campus; there is no re-seeding.

First round: 5 vs 12

5 Alabama90%

12 Boise State54%

Winner plays seed 4 (Miami, bye 48%)

First round: 6 vs 11

6 Utah84%

11 Ohio State44%

Winner plays seed 3 (Notre Dame, bye 53%)

First round: 7 vs 10

7 Texas72%

10 Oregon44%

Winner plays seed 2 (Indiana, bye 49%)

First round: 8 vs 9

8 UCLA51%

9 Tennessee43%

Winner plays seed 1 (Georgia, bye 72%)

Every contender's chances

Team	Record	Make it	Win conf.	Bye	Title game	Title
GeorgiaSEC · conf 62% · bye 72% · title game 38% Out: ILB AJ Kruah, OLB Amaris Williams, DL Joseph Jonah-Ajonye. Our call's ratings do not adjust for injuries.	8-1	96%	62%	72%	38%	23%
Notre DameFBS Independents · conf — · bye 53% · title game 32% Out: S Brauntae Johnson, OL Charles Jagusah, WR Quincy Porter. Our call's ratings do not adjust for injuries.	8-1	95%	—	53%	32%	19%
AlabamaSEC · conf 22% · bye 47% · title game 20% Out: OL Casey Poe, LB Cayden Jones, LB Desmond Umeozulu. Our call's ratings do not adjust for injuries.	7-2	90%	22%	47%	20%	10%
IndianaBig Ten · conf 41% · bye 49% · title game 19% Out: WR Davion Chandler, DL Kellan Wyatt. Our call's ratings do not adjust for injuries.	8-1	89%	41%	49%	19%	9%
MiamiACC · conf 62% · bye 48% · title game 20% Out: RB CharMar Brown, DB Ja'Boree Antoine, WR Joshua Moore. Our call's ratings do not adjust for injuries.	8-1	88%	62%	48%	20%	9%
UtahBig 12 · conf 55% · bye 45% · title game 13% Out: OL Isaiah Garcia. Our call's ratings do not adjust for injuries.	9-0	84%	55%	45%	13%	5%
TexasSEC · conf 8% · bye 24% · title game 12% Out: RB Hollywood Smothers, TE Nick Townsend, EDG Richard Wesley. Our call's ratings do not adjust for injuries.	7-2	72%	8%	24%	12%	5%
Boise StatePac-12 · conf 64% · bye 2% · title game 1% Out: QB Maddux Madsen, OL Carson Rasmussen, RB Sire Gaines. Our call's ratings do not adjust for injuries.	8-1	54%	64%	2%	1%	<1%
UCLABig Ten · conf 28% · bye 12% · title game 4% Out: QB Nico Iamaleava, DL Ashton Sanders, P Curtis Gerrand. Our call's ratings do not adjust for injuries.	9-0	51%	28%	12%	4%	1%
Ohio StateBig Ten · conf 11% · bye 6% · title game 9% Out: QB Julian Sayin, WR Brandon Inniss, WR Brock Boyd. Our call's ratings do not adjust for injuries.	6-3	44%	11%	6%	9%	5%
OregonBig Ten · conf 11% · bye 6% · title game 4% Out: QB Dante Moore, DB Aaron Flowers, TE Andrew Olesh. Our call's ratings do not adjust for injuries.	6-3	44%	11%	6%	4%	2%
TennesseeSEC · conf 6% · bye 7% · title game 5% Out: DB Dylan Lewis, DB Edrees Farooq, TE Ethan Davis. Our call's ratings do not adjust for injuries.	7-2	43%	6%	7%	5%	2%

These are chances from simulations, not a forecast of the committee's list. The full table of every team is on Playoff chances.

This week's movers

Our chance to make the field now, against a second simulation of the same season as it stood before Week 10's games (Week 10 ratings, the same random numbers, so a move is the week's results and not noise). Changes of two points or more.

Up

Oregon: 16% → 44% (+27 points)Won 41-28 at Ohio State; Our call had Ohio State by 11.6, so +24.6 against what it expected.
UCLA: 33% → 51% (+19 points)Won 34-20 at Minnesota; Our call had UCLA by 7.6, so +6.4 against what it expected.
Texas: 57% → 72% (+16 points)Won 34-20 at Missouri; Our call had Texas by 3.3, so +10.7 against what it expected.
Iowa: 19% → 35% (+15 points)Won 24-10 at Northwestern; Our call had Iowa by 0.3, so +13.7 against what it expected.
Alabama: 75% → 90% (+15 points)Won 31-13 at LSU; Our call had LSU by 3.7, so +21.7 against what it expected.
Tennessee: 31% → 43% (+12 points)Won 34-6 vs Kentucky; Our call had Tennessee by 10.0, so +18.0 against what it expected.

Down

Ohio State: 77% → 44% (−33 points)Lost 28-41 vs Oregon; Our call had Ohio State by 11.6, so −24.6 against what it expected.
LSU: 66% → 35% (−31 points)Lost 13-31 vs Alabama; Our call had LSU by 3.7, so −21.7 against what it expected.
Ole Miss: 50% → 26% (−24 points)Lost 7-42 vs Georgia; Our call had Georgia by 4.2, so −30.8 against what it expected.
Missouri: 16% → 4% (−12 points)Lost 20-34 vs Texas; Our call had Texas by 3.3, so −10.7 against what it expected.
BYU: 44% → 33% (−12 points)Lost 20-28 at Utah; Our call had Utah by 5.9, so −2.1 against what it expected.
Kentucky: 22% → 12% (−11 points)Lost 6-34 at Tennessee; Our call had Tennessee by 10.0, so −18.0 against what it expected.

Contender by contender

Every team with at least a 1 in 10 chance to make the field. Ranks are by Our call's level (1 = best of the 138 FBS teams); a schedule rank of 1 is the hardest. Margins "against Our call" are the final margin minus the margin Our call expected from today's ratings.

Georgia 8-1 · SEC · Our call level #1

Make the field 96% · win the conference 62% · bye 72% · title game 38% · national title 23% · 10.7 wins expected

Schedule so far

Average opponent +1.2 points, the 32nd hardest of the FBS schedules played. Best wins: at Alabama (#7 AP) 20-17, at Ole Miss (#19 AP) 42-7. Losses: vs Auburn (level #45) 24-27.

How they are winning

Against FBS teams, +1.8 points a game against what Our call expected. One-score or overtime games: 1-1. Against teams now in the AP Top 25: 2-0 (+12.8 against Our call); unranked: 6-1 (−1.7).

Schedule ahead

Average opponent +5.7 points, the 40th hardest left; 2.7 wins expected from 3 games.

Week 11 vs Missouri: 87%
Week 12 at South Carolina (#20 AP): 80%
Week 13 vs Georgia Tech: 99%

Key injuries

Out on the official reports: ILB AJ Kruah, OLB Amaris Williams, DL Joseph Jonah-Ajonye. Our call does not yet adjust for this.

Notre Dame 8-1 · FBS Independents · Our call level #2

Make the field 95% · win the conference — · bye 53% · title game 32% · national title 19% · 10.8 wins expected

Schedule so far

Average opponent +1.3 points, the 30th hardest of the FBS schedules played. Best wins: vs Miami (#5 AP) 31-24, vs Wisconsin 41-13. Losses: at BYU (level #19) 24-28.

How they are winning

Against FBS teams, +0.6 points a game against what Our call expected. One-score or overtime games: 1-1. Against teams now in the AP Top 25: 1-1 (−6.4 against Our call); unranked: 7-0 (+2.6).

Schedule ahead

Average opponent +1.2 points, the 59th hardest left; 2.8 wins expected from 3 games.

Week 11 vs Boston College: 98%
Week 12 vs SMU (#25 AP): 84%
Week 13 at Syracuse: 96%

Key injuries

Out on the official reports: S Brauntae Johnson, OL Charles Jagusah, WR Quincy Porter. Our call does not yet adjust for this.

Alabama 7-2 · SEC · Our call level #4

Make the field 90% · win the conference 22% · bye 47% · title game 20% · national title 10% · 9.8 wins expected

Schedule so far

Average opponent +10.7 points, the 1st hardest of the FBS schedules played. Best wins: at LSU (#24 AP) 31-13, vs South Carolina (#20 AP) 49-18. Losses: at Tennessee (level #10) 10-26, vs Georgia (level #1) 17-20.

How they are winning

Against FBS teams, +5.8 points a game against what Our call expected. One-score or overtime games: 0-1. Against teams now in the AP Top 25: 3-2 (+6.5 against Our call); unranked: 4-0 (+5.1).

Schedule ahead

Average opponent −9.4 points, the 115th hardest left; 2.8 wins expected from 3 games.

Week 11 at Vanderbilt: 89%
Week 12 vs Chattanooga (FCS): 100%
Week 13 vs Auburn: 89%

Key injuries

Out on the official reports: OL Casey Poe, LB Cayden Jones, LB Desmond Umeozulu. Our call does not yet adjust for this.

Indiana 8-1 · Big Ten · Our call level #6

Make the field 89% · win the conference 41% · bye 49% · title game 19% · national title 9% · 10.5 wins expected

Schedule so far

Average opponent +0.5 points, the 42nd hardest of the FBS schedules played. Best wins: at Nebraska 20-17, vs Northwestern 29-23. Losses: vs Ohio State (level #3) 15-19.

How they are winning

Against FBS teams, −1.3 points a game against what Our call expected. One-score or overtime games: 4-1 (2 in overtime). Against teams now in the AP Top 25: 0-1 (−5.7 against Our call); unranked: 8-0 (−0.7).

Schedule ahead

Average opponent +6.4 points, the 32nd hardest left; 2.5 wins expected from 3 games.

Week 11 vs USC (#15 AP): 74%
Week 12 at Washington: 76%
Week 13 vs Purdue: 96%

Key injuries

Out on the official reports: WR Davion Chandler, DL Kellan Wyatt. Our call does not yet adjust for this.

Miami 8-1 · ACC · Our call level #5

Make the field 88% · win the conference 62% · bye 48% · title game 20% · national title 9% · 10.7 wins expected

Schedule so far

Average opponent +0.5 points, the 41st hardest of the FBS schedules played. Best wins: at Wake Forest (#11 AP) 33-20, vs Pittsburgh 52-23. Losses: at Notre Dame (level #2) 24-31.

How they are winning

Against FBS teams, +4.3 points a game against what Our call expected. One-score or overtime games: 2-1 (1 in overtime). Against teams now in the AP Top 25: 1-1 (+5.0 against Our call); unranked: 7-0 (+5.2).

Schedule ahead

Average opponent +2.8 points, the 53rd hardest left; 2.7 wins expected from 3 games.

Week 11 vs Duke: 82%
Week 12 vs Virginia Tech: 91%
Week 13 vs Boston College: 97%

Key injuries

Out on the official reports: RB CharMar Brown, DB Ja'Boree Antoine, WR Joshua Moore. Our call does not yet adjust for this.

Utah 9-0 · Big 12 · Our call level #9

Make the field 84% · win the conference 55% · bye 45% · title game 13% · national title 5% · 11.3 wins expected

Schedule so far

Average opponent −2.0 points, the 60th hardest of the FBS schedules played. Best wins: vs BYU (#12 AP) 28-20, vs Houston (#14 AP) 21-13.

How they are winning

Against FBS teams, +0.9 points a game against what Our call expected. One-score or overtime games: 3-0. Against teams now in the AP Top 25: 2-0 (−1.2 against Our call); unranked: 7-0 (+1.2).

Schedule ahead

Average opponent +5.4 points, the 42nd hardest left; 2.3 wins expected from 3 games.

Week 11 at Arizona (#22 AP): 59%
Week 12 at TCU: 74%
Week 13 vs West Virginia: 93%

Key injuries

Out on the official reports: OL Isaiah Garcia. Our call does not yet adjust for this.

Texas 7-2 · SEC · Our call level #7

Make the field 72% · win the conference 8% · bye 24% · title game 12% · national title 5% · 9.1 wins expected

Schedule so far

Average opponent +9.8 points, the 2nd hardest of the FBS schedules played. Best wins: vs Ohio State (#21 AP) 24-23, at Tennessee (#9 AP) 20-17. Losses: vs Florida (level #40) 24-27, vs Oklahoma (level #28) 24-27.

How they are winning

Against FBS teams, +2.9 points a game against what Our call expected. One-score or overtime games: 3-2. Against teams now in the AP Top 25: 3-0 (+1.0 against Our call); unranked: 4-2 (+3.8).

Schedule ahead

Average opponent +9.1 points, the 26th hardest left; 2.1 wins expected from 3 games.

Week 11 at LSU (#24 AP): 44%
Week 12 vs Arkansas: 94%
Week 13 at Texas A&M: 68%

Key injuries

Out on the official reports: RB Hollywood Smothers, TE Nick Townsend, EDG Richard Wesley. Our call does not yet adjust for this.

Boise State 8-1 · Pac-12 · Our call level #32

Make the field 54% · win the conference 64% · bye 2% · title game 1% · national title <1% · 9.7 wins expected

Schedule so far

Average opponent −3.9 points, the 72nd hardest of the FBS schedules played. Best wins: vs Memphis 38-20, vs Texas State 46-45. Losses: at Oregon (level #12) 27-34.

How they are winning

Against FBS teams, +4.8 points a game against what Our call expected. One-score or overtime games: 2-1. Against teams now in the AP Top 25: 0-1 (+2.5 against Our call); unranked: 8-0 (+0.8).

Schedule ahead

Average opponent −3.5 points, the 80th hardest left; 1.7 wins expected from 2 games.

Week 11 vs Oregon State: 76%
Week 12 vs San Diego State: 91%

Key injuries

Out on the official reports: QB Maddux Madsen, OL Carson Rasmussen, RB Sire Gaines. Our call does not yet adjust for this.

UCLA 9-0 · Big Ten · Our call level #17

Make the field 51% · win the conference 28% · bye 12% · title game 4% · national title 1% · 10.9 wins expected

Schedule so far

Average opponent −1.2 points, the 56th hardest of the FBS schedules played. Best wins: at Oregon (#18 AP) 17-15, vs Wisconsin 17-7.

How they are winning

Against FBS teams, +4.4 points a game against what Our call expected. One-score or overtime games: 1-0. Against teams now in the AP Top 25: 1-0 (+7.4 against Our call); unranked: 8-0 (+4.0).

Schedule ahead

Average opponent +9.2 points, the 24th hardest left; 1.9 wins expected from 3 games.

Week 11 vs Illinois: 78%
Week 12 at Michigan: 57%
Week 13 vs USC (#15 AP): 55%

Key injuries

Out on the official reports: QB Nico Iamaleava, DL Ashton Sanders, P Curtis Gerrand. Our call does not yet adjust for this.

Ohio State 6-3 · Big Ten · Our call level #3

Make the field 44% · win the conference 11% · bye 6% · title game 9% · national title 5% · 8.4 wins expected

Schedule so far

Average opponent +5.6 points, the 11th hardest of the FBS schedules played. Best wins: at Indiana (#6 AP) 19-15, at Iowa (#16 AP) 31-14. Losses: at USC (level #15) 18-30, vs Oregon (level #12) 28-41.

How they are winning

Against FBS teams, +0.7 points a game against what Our call expected. One-score or overtime games: 1-1. Against teams now in the AP Top 25: 2-3 (−4.1 against Our call); unranked: 4-0 (+6.7).

Schedule ahead

Average opponent +9.8 points, the 23rd hardest left; 2.4 wins expected from 3 games.

Week 11 vs Northwestern: 83%
Week 12 at Nebraska: 72%
Week 13 vs Michigan: 84%

Key injuries

Out on the official reports: QB Julian Sayin, WR Brandon Inniss, WR Brock Boyd. Our call does not yet adjust for this.

Oregon 6-3 · Big Ten · Our call level #12

Make the field 44% · win the conference 11% · bye 6% · title game 4% · national title 2% · 8.3 wins expected

Schedule so far

Average opponent +6.4 points, the 9th hardest of the FBS schedules played. Best wins: at Ohio State (#21 AP) 41-28, at USC (#15 AP) 41-27. Losses: at Illinois (level #50) 10-21, at Oklahoma State (level #38) 31-39.

How they are winning

Against FBS teams, −2.0 points a game against what Our call expected. One-score or overtime games: 3-2. Against teams now in the AP Top 25: 3-1 (+6.3 against Our call); unranked: 3-2 (−2.7).

Schedule ahead

Average opponent +5.2 points, the 43rd hardest left; 2.3 wins expected from 3 games.

Week 11 vs Michigan: 74%
Week 12 at Michigan State: 85%
Week 13 vs Washington: 76%

Key injuries

Out on the official reports: QB Dante Moore, DB Aaron Flowers, TE Andrew Olesh. Our call does not yet adjust for this.

Tennessee 7-2 · SEC · Our call level #10

Make the field 43% · win the conference 6% · bye 7% · title game 5% · national title 2% · 8.9 wins expected

Schedule so far

Average opponent +1.4 points, the 28th hardest of the FBS schedules played. Best wins: vs Alabama (#7 AP) 26-10, vs Kentucky (#13 AP) 34-6. Losses: at South Carolina (level #23) 24-27, vs Texas (level #7) 17-20.

How they are winning

Against FBS teams, +1.7 points a game against what Our call expected. One-score or overtime games: 1-2. Against teams now in the AP Top 25: 2-2 (+5.8 against Our call); unranked: 5-0 (−3.1).

Schedule ahead

Average opponent +10.0 points, the 21st hardest left; 2.0 wins expected from 3 games.

Week 11 at Texas A&M: 63%
Week 12 vs LSU (#24 AP): 51%
Week 13 at Vanderbilt: 82%

Key injuries

Out on the official reports: DB Dylan Lewis, DB Edrees Farooq, TE Ethan Davis. Our call does not yet adjust for this.

Wake Forest 8-1 · ACC · Our call level #11

Make the field 41% · win the conference 26% · bye 5% · title game 4% · national title 2% · 10.2 wins expected

Schedule so far

Average opponent −5.1 points, the 79th hardest of the FBS schedules played. Best wins: at Louisville 30-27, vs Virginia 51-7. Losses: vs Miami (level #5) 20-33.

How they are winning

Against FBS teams, +3.3 points a game against what Our call expected. One-score or overtime games: 2-0 (1 in overtime). Against teams now in the AP Top 25: 0-1 (−10.7 against Our call); unranked: 8-0 (+7.7).

Schedule ahead

Average opponent +5.5 points, the 41st hardest left; 2.2 wins expected from 3 games.

Week 11 at SMU (#25 AP): 55%
Week 12 at Georgia Tech: 91%
Week 13 vs Duke: 72%

Key injuries

Out on the official reports: OL Dalton DeBoer, DB Devin Cook, WR Elijah Otieno. Our call does not yet adjust for this.

Texas Tech 8-1 · Big 12 · Our call level #14

Make the field 38% · win the conference 24% · bye 5% · title game 3% · national title 1% · 9.9 wins expected

Schedule so far

Average opponent −3.9 points, the 74th hardest of the FBS schedules played. Best wins: vs Arizona (#22 AP) 34-26, vs Houston (#14 AP) 28-26. Losses: at Cincinnati (level #60) 24-37.

How they are winning

Against FBS teams, −3.0 points a game against what Our call expected. One-score or overtime games: 3-0. Against teams now in the AP Top 25: 2-0 (−1.2 against Our call); unranked: 6-1 (−6.9).

Schedule ahead

Average opponent +8.1 points, the 29th hardest left; 1.9 wins expected from 3 games.

Week 11 at Oklahoma State: 60%
Week 12 at Baylor: 56%
Week 13 vs TCU: 76%

Key injuries

Out on the official reports: WR Jalen Jones, WR Malcolm Simmons. Our call does not yet adjust for this.

LSU 6-3 · SEC · Our call level #8

Make the field 35% · win the conference <1% · bye 6% · title game 5% · national title 2% · 8.0 wins expected

Schedule so far

Average opponent +3.3 points, the 17th hardest of the FBS schedules played. Best wins: vs Texas A&M 35-6, at Auburn 38-17. Losses: at Kentucky (level #43) 34-35 (OT), at Ole Miss (level #16) 24-32.

How they are winning

Against FBS teams, +3.8 points a game against what Our call expected. One-score or overtime games: 0-2 (1 in overtime). Against teams now in the AP Top 25: 0-3 (−13.6 against Our call); unranked: 6-0 (+10.5).

Schedule ahead

Average opponent +11.6 points, the 14th hardest left; 1.9 wins expected from 3 games.

Week 11 vs Texas (#8 AP): 56%
Week 12 at Tennessee (#9 AP): 49%
Week 13 at Arkansas: 89%

Key injuries

Out on the official reports: LB Charles Ross II, S Dashawn Spears, WR Phillip Wright III. Our call does not yet adjust for this.

Iowa 7-2 · Big Ten · Our call level #13

Make the field 35% · win the conference 5% · bye 4% · title game 3% · national title 1% · 9.3 wins expected

Schedule so far

Average opponent +0.0 points, the 44th hardest of the FBS schedules played. Best wins: at Northwestern 24-10, at Michigan 20-19. Losses: at Minnesota (level #66) 10-13, vs Ohio State (level #3) 14-31.

How they are winning

Against FBS teams, −0.3 points a game against what Our call expected. One-score or overtime games: 2-1. Against teams now in the AP Top 25: 0-1 (−12.8 against Our call); unranked: 7-1 (+2.0).

Schedule ahead

Average opponent +4.1 points, the 48th hardest left; 2.3 wins expected from 3 games.

Week 11 vs Purdue: 91%
Week 12 at Illinois: 71%
Week 13 vs Nebraska: 68%

Key injuries

Out on the official reports: WR Brody Schaffer, LB Burke Gautcher, OL Cael Winter. Our call does not yet adjust for this.

BYU 7-2 · Big 12 · Our call level #19

Make the field 33% · win the conference 9% · bye 4% · title game 2% · national title 1% · 9.2 wins expected

Schedule so far

Average opponent +1.8 points, the 26th hardest of the FBS schedules played. Best wins: vs Notre Dame (#3 AP) 28-24, vs Arizona (#22 AP) 28-17. Losses: at UCF (level #68) 31-39 (2OT), at Utah (level #9) 20-28.

How they are winning

Against FBS teams, −1.3 points a game against what Our call expected. One-score or overtime games: 3-2 (1 in overtime). Against teams now in the AP Top 25: 2-1 (+6.6 against Our call); unranked: 5-1 (−4.6).

Schedule ahead

Average opponent +4.9 points, the 45th hardest left; 2.2 wins expected from 3 games.

Week 11 vs Baylor: 65%
Week 12 at Kansas: 69%
Week 13 vs Cincinnati: 83%

Key injuries

Out on the official reports: CB Evan Johnson, CB Jonathan Kabeya, S Joseph Douglas. Our call does not yet adjust for this.

Ole Miss 6-3 · SEC · Our call level #16

Make the field 26% · win the conference <1% · bye 2% · title game 1% · national title 1% · 8.3 wins expected

Schedule so far

Average opponent +9.1 points, the 3rd hardest of the FBS schedules played. Best wins: vs LSU (#24 AP) 32-24, vs Louisville 41-38. Losses: at Florida (level #40) 28-52, at Texas (level #7) 27-34.

How they are winning

Against FBS teams, +2.3 points a game against what Our call expected. One-score or overtime games: 2-1. Against teams now in the AP Top 25: 1-2 (−4.4 against Our call); unranked: 5-1 (+5.6).

Schedule ahead

Average opponent −7.1 points, the 101st hardest left; 2.4 wins expected from 3 games.

Week 11 at Oklahoma: 55%
Week 12 vs Wofford (FCS): 100%
Week 13 vs Mississippi State: 81%

Key injuries

Out on the official reports: LB Ant Davis Jr., OL Carius Curne, S Edwin Joseph. Our call does not yet adjust for this.

USC 7-2 · Big Ten · Our call level #15

Make the field 22% · win the conference 4% · bye 3% · title game 2% · national title 1% · 8.6 wins expected

Schedule so far

Average opponent +5.2 points, the 12th hardest of the FBS schedules played. Best wins: vs Ohio State (#21 AP) 30-18, at Penn State 31-23. Losses: at Wisconsin (level #41) 7-24, vs Oregon (level #12) 27-41.

How they are winning

Against FBS teams, −1.6 points a game against what Our call expected. One-score or overtime games: 3-0. Against teams now in the AP Top 25: 1-1 (+1.6 against Our call); unranked: 6-1 (−2.5).

Schedule ahead

Average opponent +10.6 points, the 17th hardest left; 1.6 wins expected from 3 games.

Week 11 at Indiana (#6 AP): 26%
Week 12 vs Maryland: 90%
Week 13 at UCLA (#4 AP): 45%

Key injuries

Out on the official reports: WR Corey Simms, OL Hayden Treter, S Kendarius Reddick. Our call does not yet adjust for this.

New Mexico 8-1 · Mountain West · Our call level #39

Make the field 18% · win the conference 66% · bye <1% · title game <1% · national title <1% · 10.4 wins expected

Schedule so far

Average opponent −10.6 points, the 127th hardest of the FBS schedules played. Best wins: vs North Dakota State 21-16, at Hawai'i 21-10. Losses: at Oklahoma (level #28) 6-14.

How they are winning

Against FBS teams, +3.8 points a game against what Our call expected. One-score or overtime games: 2-1. Against teams now in the AP Top 25: 0-0; unranked: 8-1 (+6.1).

Schedule ahead

Average opponent −4.8 points, the 89th hardest left; 2.4 wins expected from 3 games.

Week 11 vs UNLV: 83%
Week 12 at Wyoming: 80%
Week 13 vs Air Force: 81%

Key injuries

None listed Out on the official reports we keep. Our call does not adjust for injuries either way.

Liberty 8-1 · Conference USA · Our call level #31

Make the field 13% · win the conference 77% · bye 0% · title game <1% · national title <1% · 10.8 wins expected

Schedule so far

Average opponent −12.5 points, the 135th hardest of the FBS schedules played. Best wins: at Delaware 30-14, vs Florida International 49-10. Losses: at James Madison (level #34) 13-20.

How they are winning

Against FBS teams, +3.4 points a game against what Our call expected. One-score or overtime games: 1-1. Against teams now in the AP Top 25: 0-0; unranked: 8-1 (−1.1).

Schedule ahead

Average opponent −13.5 points, the 134th hardest left; 2.8 wins expected from 3 games.

Week 11 vs Middle Tennessee: 96%
Week 12 vs Western Kentucky: 94%
Week 13 at Missouri State: 92%

Key injuries

None listed Out on the official reports we keep. Our call does not adjust for injuries either way.

Houston 7-2 · Big 12 · Our call level #33

Make the field 13% · win the conference 3% · bye 1% · title game <1% · national title <1% · 9.1 wins expected

Schedule so far

Average opponent +1.0 points, the 35th hardest of the FBS schedules played. Best wins: vs Oklahoma State 35-32, vs Cincinnati 31-24. Losses: at Texas Tech (level #14) 26-28, at Utah (level #9) 13-21.

How they are winning

Against FBS teams, +3.0 points a game against what Our call expected. One-score or overtime games: 2-2. Against teams now in the AP Top 25: 0-2 (+4.4 against Our call); unranked: 7-0 (+5.7).

Schedule ahead

Average opponent +0.9 points, the 60th hardest left; 2.0 wins expected from 3 games.

Week 11 at Colorado: 78%
Week 12 at West Virginia: 73%
Week 13 vs Baylor: 54%

Key injuries

None listed Out on the official reports we keep. Our call does not adjust for injuries either way.

Kentucky 7-2 · SEC · Our call level #43

Make the field 12% · win the conference <1% · bye 1% · title game <1% · national title <1% · 8.2 wins expected

Schedule so far

Average opponent +5.0 points, the 13th hardest of the FBS schedules played. Best wins: vs LSU (#24 AP) 35-34 (OT), at South Carolina (#20 AP) 35-34 (OT). Losses: at Tennessee (level #10) 6-34, vs Alabama (level #4) 17-45.

How they are winning

Against FBS teams, +4.5 points a game against what Our call expected. One-score or overtime games: 3-0 (2 in overtime). Against teams now in the AP Top 25: 2-2 (−2.3 against Our call); unranked: 5-0 (+6.6).

Schedule ahead

Average opponent +10.8 points, the 16th hardest left; 1.2 wins expected from 3 games.

Week 11 vs Florida: 54%
Week 12 at Missouri: 29%
Week 13 vs Louisville: 37%

Key injuries

Out on the official reports: ILB Antwan Smith, DB Grant Grayton, DB Jaden Smith. Our call does not yet adjust for this.

Arizona 7-2 · Big 12 · Our call level #20

Make the field 11% · win the conference 4% · bye <1% · title game <1% · national title <1% · 8.9 wins expected

Schedule so far

Average opponent −3.5 points, the 70th hardest of the FBS schedules played. Best wins: vs TCU 29-28, vs Cincinnati 34-7. Losses: at BYU (level #19) 17-28, at Texas Tech (level #14) 26-34.

How they are winning

Against FBS teams, +0.9 points a game against what Our call expected. One-score or overtime games: 1-1. Against teams now in the AP Top 25: 0-2 (−5.2 against Our call); unranked: 7-0 (−0.2).

Schedule ahead

Average opponent +6.7 points, the 31st hardest left; 1.9 wins expected from 3 games.

Week 11 vs Utah (#2 AP): 41%
Week 12 at Kansas State: 72%
Week 13 vs Arizona State: 81%

Key injuries

Out on the official reports: S Cam Chapa, DL Ezra Funa, RB Ismail Mahdi. Our call does not yet adjust for this.

Past and future schedule difficulty

Each contender by the average level of the opponents it has played (across) and of the opponents it has left (up), in points against the average FBS team. Above the dashed line the road ahead is harder than the road behind.

How the simulations did last season

The same method run as of each week of 2025, and how many of the twelve teams that really made that field were in our twelve most likely (the AP poll's twelve beside it). Rows marked "yes" start the field from the committee's ranking of that week; "no" is our own ratings alone, as this page is.

Week	Committee used	Ours	AP
10	no	9 of 12	8 of 12
11	yes	9 of 12	9 of 12
12	yes	9 of 12	9 of 12
13	yes	10 of 12	9 of 12
14	yes	11 of 12	9 of 12

Targets we set before running it and missed: week 10: at least as many real playoff teams in our top 12 as in the AP top 12, each season. That is why this page says experimental.

Committee vs our projection

The committee's newest ranking sits beside our projection on the rankings page. Where they differ most:

Kentucky: the committee has them 6; our simulations give them 12% to make the field.
Boise State: not in the committee's top 12; our simulations give them 54% to make the field.

How this works

Each remaining game is played 10,000 times with Our call's margin, a noise term fitted on past seasons and a per-team shift for how a team's season can drift.
The field follows the official 2026-27 rules: 12 teams, the five conference-champion bids and the next highest-ranked teams; our stand-in for the committee ranks teams by losses, strength, schedule and conference titles, weighted the way the committee ranked teams in 2024 and 2025.
Injuries are named on each contender's line from the official reports we keep; no injury changes any number here yet.
Updated after each day's finals; the time above is the run's.